A new study published in Nature Human Behaviour estimates Australia's pre-colonial Indigenous population at 2.22 million, with a 93% decline by 1861 due to disease and violence.
A new study published in the journal Nature Human Behaviour estimates that approximately 2.22 million Indigenous Australians lived on the continent before the arrival of the First Fleet in 1788. The research indicates that 93% of this population was lost within 73 years, a demographic collapse significantly larger than previously recognized.
The study, led by researchers including Associate Professor Alan Williams and Professor Corey Bradshaw, combined genetic reconstructions, archaeological findings, ethnographic observations, and computer models to reconstruct population history. The team calculated a median pre-colonial population of 2.22 million, corresponding to approximately 0.29 people per square kilometer.
This figure is substantially higher than earlier historical estimates, which generally ranged from 250,000 to 1 million people. A prominent earlier assessment by anthropologist Alfred Radcliffe-Brown in the 1930s placed the population at approximately 250,000. The new research suggests that previous figures were underestimates because they did not fully account for the devastating effects of deadly diseases, frontier violence, and structural violence that occurred before the earliest Australian censuses were conducted.
By comparing their model with early census records, the researchers estimated that approximately 2.06 million excess deaths occurred between 1788 and 1861. This represents an average of roughly 28,200 excess deaths annually over the 73-year period. By 1861, the Indigenous population had declined to an estimated 7% of its pre-colonial size.
"These devastating findings highlight the major impacts of invasion experienced by Indigenous Australians, and demonstrate their remarkable survival, resilience and recovery over the past century," says lead author Associate Professor Alan Williams.
Although Australia's Indigenous population has increased since the 1950s, it has not yet returned to its estimated size before European arrival. According to the 2021 Australian census, the Indigenous population was approximately 37% of the study's estimated median population in 1788. The researchers project that if population growth continues along current trends, Indigenous population numbers may not return to their estimated pre-colonial level until around 2047.
The study challenges long-held assumptions about Australian history and the scale of colonization's impact. Distinguished Professor Larissa Behrendt AO, Chair of the CIEHF Centre Advisory Committee, stated, "These research findings challenge us to rethink the scale of what happened after 1788. We are not talking about a marginal consequence of colonization but a demographic catastrophe at the heart of the Australian story."
The findings are intended to inform a better understanding of intergenerational trauma and persistent disadvantage, as well as to guide policies that support Indigenous communities. Distinguished Professor Lynette Russell of the Monash University Indigenous Studies Centre noted, "In addition to recognizing this intergenerational trauma and disadvantage, it is also time to recognize intergenerational privilege."
Sources
This article was drafted with AI assistance and checked against the sources above. Company claims are reported as claims. Cover image is AI-generated.
The day's checked news, by email
One short email a day with the top stories. Free, and you can unsubscribe in one click.
Or follow for the latest news:
No comments yet. Start the discussion.
ScienceTrending
A joint expedition by Purdue University and the Archaeological Legacy Institute found no conclusive evidence that Amelia Earhart’s plane wreckage is on Nikumaroro Island. The team determined a suspected object was likely debris from trees.
Researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Radio Astronomy identified a second jet in galaxy Mrk 501, suggesting a binary black hole system that could merge within a century.