NASA satellites are monitoring a potential record-breaking El Niño event in 2026. NOAA estimates an 83% chance this is the strongest since 1950, with significant impacts on sea levels and marine life.
NASA is closely monitoring a significant El Niño event unfolding in the equatorial Pacific Ocean this fall. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is an 83% chance that the current event is the strongest El Niño since 1950. NASA scientists are using a fleet of Earth-observing satellites to track changes in sea surface height, temperature, and ocean color.
The first signs of the 2026 El Niño appeared in satellite imagery in January 2026, when a Kelvin wave was detected near Micronesia in the western Pacific. Kelvin waves are slow-moving pulses of water that transfer heat from west to east across the Pacific Ocean. This movement weakens or reverses trade winds, causing sea levels in the eastern Pacific to rise and waters to warm further.
By early April, these waves had reached the eastern Pacific. Data from Sentinel-6 satellites, which measure water height every 10 days, show that warm water expansion has elevated local sea levels in some areas by as much as 1 to 1.3 feet (30 to 40 centimeters). Conversely, sea levels around Indonesia and northern Australia are six to eight inches (15 to 20 centimeters) lower than normal.
"Kelvin waves are like the heartbeat of El Niño," said Josh Willis, project scientist for sea level missions at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California. "And our sea level satellites let us peer into the ocean and watch every beat."
Sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific are currently about 3 degrees Fahrenheit (1.7 degrees Celsius) warmer than the long-term average. Willis noted that temperatures could rise by another fraction of a degree in the coming months. Satellites equipped with microwave and infrared radiometers have mapped a band of warmer-than-normal water stretching from the central Pacific to the coast of South America.
This warming influences global weather patterns by carrying heat and moisture into the atmosphere, which can seed rainstorms and alter precipitation across the globe. Farmers, firefighters, and coastal communities are already experiencing varied effects from these shifting patterns.
The 2026 El Niño is the first since the launch of NASA’s PACE (Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem) satellite in 2024. PACE data reveals that equatorial Pacific waters have become measurably bluer over the last several months. This shift indicates a decline in phytoplankton, microscopic plants that form the base of the marine food web and typically give the ocean green or teal hues.
During El Niño events, weakened trade winds reduce the upwelling of nutrient-rich deep water to the surface. With less food available, phytoplankton abundance drops, potentially forcing other marine life to relocate. Matthew Kehrli, a lead research scientist for the PACE team at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, noted the value of observing these changes in real time.
"You have expectations of what you would think would happen," Kehrli said. "But to visually see the results with the data products that you’re working with in real time is gratifying."
El Niño events significantly impact global climate systems, affecting agriculture, wildfire risk, and coastal infrastructure. The 2026 event’s potential record strength underscores the importance of continuous satellite monitoring. NASA’s data provides critical insights into how ocean dynamics influence weather and marine ecosystems, helping communities prepare for and adapt to these natural climate variations.
Sources
This article was drafted with AI assistance and checked against the sources above. Company claims are reported as claims. Cover image is AI-generated.
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