At least seven cargo vessels were struck by drones in the Black Sea this month, killing two and leaving 25 missing. NATO members Romania and Bulgaria are investigating the attacks, which occurred in their exclusive economic zones.
A string of drone attacks on at least seven cargo vessels in the Black Sea this month, off the coasts of NATO members Romania and Bulgaria, has raised concerns among alliance members. The incidents have left two people dead and at least 25 missing, prompting questions about whether Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking escalation to test support for Ukraine.
The attacks occurred in the exclusive economic zones of Romania and Bulgaria, threatening a global shipping route. Throughout the war, Russia has repeatedly bombarded Ukraine’s Black Sea and Danube river ports, leaving Kyiv increasingly reliant on alternative routes to get its grain exports to markets in Africa and the Middle East. Russian drones have repeatedly violated Romanian airspace near some of Ukraine's Danube ports.
In the latest incidents, fires broke out on two ships struck by drones on Wednesday and Thursday, with one occurring in Romania's territorial waters. Romanian President Nicusor Dan said Thursday in Brussels that “two drones” had hit the vessels but did not say whose drones they were. “There will be a reaction from the Romanian state,” he warned.
Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev told his country’s Parliament that suspicion falls on Russia. “There is no logic in Ukraine attacking its own ships and crews, given that the outcome of all these attacks favors Russia — and indeed, the logic points in that direction,” Radev said. “The problem is that we cannot prove it.”
Multiple vessels were struck during the month:
Russia's ambassador in Sofia, Bulgaria, said she didn't have any information from the Russian defense ministry.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said on X on Thursday that he met with Radev and Dan to discuss security in the Black Sea and “the latest attacks on commercial shipping.”
“NATO has strengthened our posture along the eastern flank including with increasing counter-drone capabilities,” Rutte said. “NATO will continue to work closely with our Allies in the Black Sea, adjusting our deterrence and defense posture as needed.”
However, the application of NATO’s mutual defense guarantee, Article 5, remains uncertain. Romanian defense analyst Radu Tudor noted that many strikes occurred in exclusive economic zones rather than territorial waters.
“It’s a matter of discussion whether the exclusive economic zone is included in the Article 5-type reaction or not,” Tudor said. “And it seems that until now, it isn’t — which raised a lot of questions.”
Tudor argued that NATO has been too slow to respond. “Tens of incidents are happening and Russia is getting closer to NATO borders. … Words are not enough,” he said.
Cezar Gheorghe, founder of grain consultancy firm Agricolumn, told the AP that the drone incidents have not negatively impacted trade at Romania’s Black Sea port of Constanta. However, he noted that insurance costs in the wider Black Sea are rising. “The (premium) for the risk is increasing, ... everyone that wants to come to Constanta, let’s say from Turkey, from the Bosphorus Strait and across that area, will have a (premium) on insurance costs,” Gheorghe said.
In July, Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey expanded the Black Sea Mine Countermeasures Task Force naval pact to “expand the missions to the protection of critical submarine infrastructure,” according to Romania's defense ministry. Bulgarian Defense Minister Dimitar Stoyanov said Wednesday that his country plans to join NATO’s Drone Edge project by the end of October. The initiative, which Romania also joined, aims to invest over $40 billion in “counter-drone capabilities” over the next five years.
The drone strikes highlight the expanding geographic scope of the conflict in Ukraine, bringing attacks closer to NATO borders and testing the alliance's response mechanisms. The uncertainty surrounding whether attacks in exclusive economic zones trigger Article 5 creates a potential security gap. Additionally, the rising insurance costs and risks to commercial shipping threaten global grain supply chains that rely on Black Sea routes.
Sources
This article was drafted with AI assistance and checked against the sources above. Company claims are reported as claims. Cover image is AI-generated.
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