Study Methodology and Findings
Researchers from the University of Minnesota Medical School conducted a target trial emulation using electronic health records. The study utilized data from the US National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C), which includes health records from more than 21 million people. The researchers identified adults who had tested positive for COVID-19 between March 2020 and September 2023.
To conduct the comparison, scientists analyzed 248 people who received a new metformin prescription within six days of a documented SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis. This group was compared against a control group of 248 people who were prescribed other medications—specifically fluvoxamine, fluticasone, ivermectin, or montelukast—within the same six-day timeframe. To ensure the groups were comparable, researchers excluded individuals who were already taking metformin or those with conditions such as diabetes, PCOS, or gestational diabetes that might explain the prescription.
According to the study authors, "Metformin prescription within the week following documented SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with a 53% reduction in LC/D [long COVID or death] over 6 months in this primarily Omicron-infected sample."
In terms of specific incidence rates, the study reported the following over a six-month period:
- Metformin group: 4.0% incidence (10 out of 248 people) developed long COVID or died.
- Control group: 8.5% incidence (21 out of 248 people) developed long COVID or died.
- Overall weighted incidence: 6.3% across both groups.
- Absolute risk reduction: 4.5 percentage points for the metformin group.
Approximately half of the metformin cohort and 52% of the control group were infected with the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2.