Analyst estimates Gears of War E-Day sales and Game Pass usage

Analyst firm Alinea estimates that Gears of War: E-Day sold 230,000 premium copies across Xbox and Steam following its October 1 launch. The report indicates a significant disparity between direct console purchases and subscription-based access, with 1.7 million estimated players using Xbox Game Pass.

Sales and Subscription Estimates

According to Alinea, 62,000 people bought the game outright on Xbox consoles, while 168,000 buyers purchased it on Steam. SteamDB ownership estimates, which the source notes are "always fallible and are especially volatile shortly after launch," support this figure, estimating 171,000 to 195,000 owners at the time of writing.

Rhys Elliott, market analysis head at Alinea, stated that "The $70 premium SKU is – functionally – dead on Xbox." However, Elliott noted that the raw sales figures do not capture the full paying audience. An estimated 722,000 Game Pass subscribers paid for E-Day's premium upgrade. "So '230K copies' undersells the paying audience," Elliott writes. "Including the 722K upgrades, nearly 950K people actually paid something for E-Day." This brings the game's total estimated sales revenue to around $37 million.

Debate Over Cannibalization

The relationship between Game Pass usage and direct sales remains a subject of debate among industry analysts. Circana games analyst Mat Piscatella argued against the idea that subscription services simply replace direct purchases. "It isn't straight cannibalism if a person paying for Game Pass plays an offered game through the service," Piscatella said. He added, "Not every person who plays a game via a sub service would buy that game were it not included in that service."

The source notes that it is impossible to determine exactly how many Game Pass players would have paid full price without the subscription option. Additionally, the value of Game Pass subscriptions purchased specifically to access E-Day cannot be separated from the game's direct revenue.

Platform Strategy and Context

Microsoft removed new Call of Duty games from Game Pass day-one offerings earlier this year, a move the source describes as occurring after Game Pass growth failed to meet expectations. In contrast, Gears of War: E-Day launched directly into Game Pass on release day.

The report mentions that E-Day was reportedly close to a finished PS5 port before Microsoft reversed course to keep it console-exclusive to Xbox. The Coalition, the developer of E-Day, has reportedly expressed fears regarding post-launch layoffs and potential withheld bonuses, though these claims are not confirmed by Microsoft. GamesRadar+ reached out to Microsoft for comment on the figures, which remain unconfirmed estimates.

---

Sources

• gamesradar.com: Gears of War E-Day sold just 62k copies on Xbox versus 1.7 million Game Pass players, analyst estimates: "The $70 premium SKU is – functionally – dead on Xbox" | GamesRadar+
• games.gg: Gears of War E-Day Xbox Sales vs Game Pass Players Explained

This article was drafted with AI assistance and checked against the sources above. Company claims are reported as claims. Cover image is AI-generated.