Himalayan building boom puts 300,000 people at risk of disaster

At least 300,000 people in parts of the Himalayan region could be living in the path of potential disasters, according to a peer-reviewed study published in Scientific Reports.

Expansion of built-up land

Researchers found that the amount of built-up land in high-risk zones in northern Nepal, parts of south-eastern Tibet, and a corner of India's Uttarakhand grew by approximately 45% between 2016 and 2023. In areas specifically threatened by flooding from glacial lakes, development increased by almost 78% during that same period.

The study, conducted by nine researchers from the UK, Nepal, and India, examined areas up to 50km (30 miles) downstream from Himalayan rivers and around 1,360 glacial lakes. The team noted that the true number of people under threat could be higher because the study only analyzed a specific territory and not neighboring areas facing similar risks.

Drivers of development and risk

Construction has surged due to the expansion of tourism facilities, infrastructure, real estate, and hydropower plants, particularly around the Bhotekoshi and Trishuli rivers.

Local officials and experts have noted several challenges regarding this growth:

• Pokhara, Nepal: Mayor Dhana Raj Acharya stated it is a "huge challenge" to manage risks from the Seti Gandaki River, noting many old buildings sit just 5m (16ft) from river banks despite rules requiring them to be further away.
• Tourism and Planning: The president of the Hotel Association Pokhara, Laxman Subedi, admitted tourism businesses have expanded "without any proper planning" and have been promoted "haphazardly."
• Regulatory Enforcement: Activist Anoop Nautiyal claimed that in Uttarakhand, maximum tourism limits and environmental regulations have been bypassed for economic growth, stating, "on the ground we see no implementation of such rules."

Environmental factors

Scientists report that warming in the Himalayan region is occurring at twice the global rate, which accelerates the melting of glaciers, icefields, and snowpacks. This process can destabilize mountain slopes and cause glacial lakes to expand until they burst.

Nepal's Prime Minister Balendra Shah addressed these climate risks at a recent UN General Assembly speech, stating the country is paying a "colossal price" for a crisis it did not create.

Why it matters

As river valleys become more populated, current development decisions will shape disaster risk for decades. While the Uttarakhand government approved new floodplain zoning rules on 12 October to protect life and infrastructure, experts like Basanta Raj Adhikari suggest that complete mitigation may not be possible.

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Sources

• rediff.com: Building boom puts 3L people in the path of potential Himalayan disasters
• bbc.com: Floods: Building boom in Nepal and India's Uttarakhand puts 300,000 people in path of potential Himalayan disasters, study suggests

This article was drafted with AI assistance and checked against the sources above. Company claims are reported as claims. Cover image is AI-generated.