The Global Carbon Project projects fossil fuel and cement emissions will fall 0.4% in 2026 to 38.2 gigatonnes, driven by an oil decline linked to the Iran conflict, though total emissions including land use are set to reach a record high.
The Global Carbon Project has published its 2026 report, projecting that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and cement will fall slightly in 2026, from 38.4 gigatonnes in 2025 to a projected 38.2 gigatonnes, a decrease of 0.4%. The report was released as world leaders gathered in Turkey, also known as Türkiye, for the COP31 climate conference.
The projected decline is largely due to a 1.9% drop in emissions from oil and the energy shock triggered by the Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices have surged from around US$60 a barrel at the start of 2026 to US$100 a barrel. Petrol and diesel prices in the US, China and EU were 10-50% higher than in 2025, depending on the fuel and the period.
Growth in electric vehicles accounted for around a fifth of the overall drop in oil emissions in 2026. A quarter of new cars sold in Australia in 2026 were fully electric.
China, the world’s biggest fossil fuel emitter, is projected to see emissions fall by 0.9%. The report attributes this to strong growth in renewables and milder summer temperatures than 2025’s record highs, which reduced demand for cooling. Oil emissions in China are projected to fall by 4.6%.
The US is projected to see a 1.3% decline, mainly due to a 6.7% fall in coal emissions. The EU is projected to see a 1.5% decline. India is projected to see emissions rise by 4.4%.
The Global Carbon Project’s projections for fossil fuel and cement CO2 emissions in 2026 are preliminary, with a range that spans a fall of -1.5% to a rise of +0.6%. This means a small increase in emissions cannot be ruled out.
Emissions from land-use change, such as deforestation, are projected to rise in 2026, primarily driven by peat fires and forest degradation in south-east Asia linked to a strong El Niño event. Total CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and land use are projected to reach a record high of 43.3 gigatonnes in 2026, marginally above 42.8 gigatonnes in 2025.
Research published alongside the report in Nature Climate Change finds that growth in solar, wind and EVs now offsets around two-thirds of the emissions that would otherwise come from rising energy demand. However, the deployment of these technologies is not yet enough to push global emissions into a sustained decline. The researchers’ central estimate suggests global emissions would have continued to rise had it not been for the energy shock from the Iran war.
The remaining carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5C is 150 gigatonnes of CO2, or less than four years of current emissions. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations are set to reach 427.7 parts per million in 2026, 54% above pre-industrial levels.
Sources
This article was drafted with AI assistance and checked against the sources above. Company claims are reported as claims. Cover image is AI-generated.
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