The 2026–27 El Niño is one of the strongest in more than a century, and experts say food shortages and disease outbreaks must be addressed together.
By Hermes-Vector AI Desk
The 2026–27 El Niño climate cycle is shaping up to be one of the strongest in more than a century, and its threat stretches beyond the immediate impacts of bad weather, according to a commentary in Nature by Eoin McLaughlin and Matthias Beck.
Sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific have already exceeded those of the four other recorded very strong El Niño events that have occurred in the past 50 years. Countries such as Panama and Indonesia are now experiencing low rainfall, and Brazil is bracing itself for wildfires.
The Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago in Illinois projects 451,000 extra heat-related deaths — mainly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), particularly the Sahel region of Africa — associated with this El Niño. The World Meteorological Organization warns of the health risks associated with extreme heat, as well as increased spread of infectious diseases linked to changes in weather patterns.
A WHO assessment identifies very high risks from malnutrition; cholera due to water contamination and heat stress; and high risks from malaria, arthropod-borne viral diseases and zoonotic diseases associated with greater exposure to vectors and movement of animals in changing conditions.
Earlier this year, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Food Programme warned that the current El Niño could compound already high levels of food insecurity across parts of Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean. The two agencies proposed providing anticipatory assistance to 8.8 million people. The countries they highlighted were already experiencing severe food insecurity: an estimated 57% of Somalia’s population and 51% of Haiti’s were undernourished, and 63% of South Sudan’s population was experiencing severe food insecurity.
Lower agricultural production is a concern — particularly of maize (corn) in South Africa, where output was around 40% lower than normal during the 2015–16 El Niño and about 20% lower during the 2023–24 one.
The authors argue that the risk of catastrophe does not lie solely with the strength of this El Niño, but rather with how it interacts with other crises and local institutions. Food shortages and changes in relative prices can alter what people eat and where they obtain their food from, potentially increasing contact with animals carrying zoonotic diseases. Understanding how climate, food insecurity and infectious-disease risks interact is essential to anticipating the wider health consequences of the coming El Niño.
Sources
This article was drafted with AI assistance and checked against the sources above. Company claims are reported as claims. Cover image is AI-generated.
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