Saudi Arabia leads OPEC+ output rebound to near pre-war levels in October

Saudi Arabia told OPEC it pumped 10.563 million barrels a day of crude in October, up 26% from 8.372 million in September and the most since February's pre-war 10.882 million, according to figures the kingdom submitted for the group's monthly oil market report.

Saudi output and market supply

Saudi Arabia's October figure is slightly above the kingdom's OPEC+ quota of about 10.5 million barrels a day. Not all of that crude reached buyers. Official data put Saudi supply to the market, net of storage, at 9.203 million barrels a day, with the rest of October's wellhead output going into storage. OPEC's secondary sources, which estimate production independently of member governments, put Saudi output at about 9.19 million barrels a day, up 1.18 million from September.

OPEC+ group output and Iran

Across OPEC, secondary sources put October crude production at about 27.16 million barrels a day, up roughly 1.97 million from September. Saudi Arabia supplied the biggest gain, followed by Iraq, up 496,000 barrels a day to 4.49 million, and Kuwait, up 232,000 to about 2 million. The wider OPEC+ alliance raised output by 2.04 million barrels a day to 41.23 million. Iran moved the other way. Its output fell 44,000 barrels a day to about 1.91 million, which an OPEC source cited by Swedish news agency TT described as the lowest in 40 years, with a U.S. naval blockade keeping its exports shut in.

Demand outlook and prices

OPEC left its demand outlook unchanged: global demand is forecast to grow by 180,000 barrels a day this year to 105.72 million and by 2.55 million barrels a day in 2027. Brent crude was up 1.4% at $92.73 a barrel and WTI up 1.3% at $87.13 as of 9:27 a.m. ET Wednesday, as attacks on Hormuz shipping offset hopes for a U.S.-Iran truce.

Why it matters

Saudi Arabia's production rebound drove most of OPEC+'s October supply increase, pushing group output close to pre-war levels even as Iran's output fell to a 40-year low and Strait of Hormuz shipping remained disrupted.

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Sources

• ft.com: Subscribe to read
• mlq.ai: Saudi Arabia tells OPEC its October oil output jumped 26%, back near pre-war levels | MLQ.ai
• moomoo.com: Saudi Arabia's crude oil output in October returned to pre-war levels; OPEC+ supply rebound exceeded expectations

This article was drafted with AI assistance and checked against the sources above. Company claims are reported as claims. Cover image is AI-generated.