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Odds on Kalshi for a Tesla-SpaceX merger before March 2027 jumped to 56% following a Barclays note and recent product showcases. Analysts cite vertical integration and Terafab as potential drivers.
Prediction market traders have increased the odds of a merger between Tesla and SpaceX to above 50% for early 2027. According to CNBC, the probability of an integration happening before March jumped to 56% on Friday, up from 29%. Odds for a merger before April and May also rose to similar levels.
The shift in odds followed a Barclays note published on Wednesday that outlined potential scenarios for a merger between the two companies, both of which are controlled by Elon Musk. The prediction market contract on Kalshi asks, "When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?" and is verified by news outlets and the Securities and Exchange Commission’s EDGAR database.
Barclays analyst Dan Levy stated that the firm now expects a merger could be announced before Tesla’s annual general meeting, which must take place no later than Dec. 6, 2026. Levy suggested the merger might be proposed as an AI vertical integration, involving Tesla’s Robotaxi and Optimus with SpaceX’s Grok and Macrohard. He added that Terafab, a semiconductor project relying on Tesla, SpaceX and xAI, could be a "key driver" for the merger.
"Notably, while we suspect there would be some financial synergies, the true value would be in vertical integration," Levy said.
Speculation has been fueled by recent collaborations between the two companies. On Thursday, Tesla showcased its long-delayed Roadster, which relies on SpaceX technology to make the vehicle hover. A video demonstrating the Roadster’s capabilities was recorded at SpaceX’s test site in Texas.
During Tesla’s latest earnings call, Musk spoke of "more and more overlap" between Tesla and SpaceX. While there have been no formal announcements or filings confirming a merger, market sentiment has shifted significantly in response to these developments and analyst reports.
In related market news, Evercore ISI recommended buying SpaceX shares ahead of its next scheduled earnings release, set for early November. The firm boosted its 12-month price target on the stock by 20% to $275.
The rising odds reflect growing investor speculation about the strategic alignment of Elon Musk’s companies. While no official merger has been announced, the combination of product integration, shared technology projects like Terafab, and analyst forecasts suggests that a formal union could be a significant event for both companies and the broader market. Investors are monitoring for any SEC filings or official statements that could confirm or deny these predictions.
Sources
This article was drafted with AI assistance and checked against the sources above. Company claims are reported as claims. Cover image is AI-generated.
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