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NOAA has issued a G2 geomagnetic storm watch for October 9 following a solar eruption. The event could produce northern lights visible as far south as New York and Idaho.
NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has issued a moderate (G2) geomagnetic storm watch for Oct. 9. The watch follows a powerful solar eruption on Oct. 6 that launched a coronal mass ejection (CME) toward Earth.
The eruption originated from sunspot region AR4549 and was accompanied by an M1.4-class solar flare. Forecasters at Belgium's Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC) estimate the CME is traveling at around 560 km/s.
Current models indicate the CME could reach Earth in the early hours of Oct. 9 (UTC), though exact timing remains uncertain. NOAA's WSA-ENLIL model suggests the leading edge could arrive at around 05:00 UTC (1 a.m. EDT) on Oct. 9. The U.K. Met Office predicts an arrival at around midnight EDT (0400 GMT), give or take 6 hours.
Geomagnetic storms are ranked on a scale from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme). G2 conditions correspond to Kp 6. During storms of this strength, auroras have previously been seen as far south as New York and Idaho.
NOAA's latest 3-day forecast shows:
The visibility of the northern lights depends on the magnetic orientation of the CME when it reaches Earth. A southward component in the CME's magnetic field allows for efficient coupling with Earth's magnetosphere, potentially enhancing the aurora display.
At the time of the initial report, AR4549 produced another M-class solar flare, an M1.4, just hours after the first eruption. Two prominent sunspot regions, AR4549 and AR4545, are currently facing Earth and have shown increasing flare activity.
Additionally, coronal holes rotating across the Earth-facing side of the sun are expected to send further streams of fast solar wind, with another enhanced period of geomagnetic activity predicted around Oct. 11.
This event highlights the ongoing variability of solar activity and its direct impact on Earth's upper atmosphere. While G2 storms are considered moderate, they can disrupt satellite operations, radio communications, and power grids, while also providing opportunities for aurora viewing at lower latitudes than usual.
Sources
This article was drafted with AI assistance and checked against the sources above. Company claims are reported as claims. Cover image is AI-generated.
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