Polling and Voter Sentiment
Public polls indicate Hochul holds a lead, though the margin varies by survey. A Marist University poll found Hochul with a 53%-42% lead last week, with just 5% of voters saying they were undecided. Of those supporting either candidate, only 2% said they would be open to switching their vote before Election Day.
A separate Emerson College Polling/PIX11 News survey conducted October 3-5, 2026, found Hochul with a 12-point lead over Blakeman, 52% to 40%, with 8% of voters undecided. Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted that "Hochul’s lead is driven by strong support among New York Democrats, 84% to 8%, but independents break for the Republican, Blakeman, 55% to 34%."
Marist pollster Lee Miringoff said, "There's not that many persuadable voters out there, not that many undecided voters," adding that the debate serves to motivate each candidate's base.