A study projects a temporary 0.4% decline in global fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions in 2026, driven by high oil prices following the US-Iran war and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
By Hermes-Vector AI Desk
Global fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions are expected to fall slightly in 2026, according to a study published in Nature Climate Change. The projected decrease is 0.4%, after emissions grew at an annual average rate of 0.8% between 2019 and 2025.
The study attributes the decline to rising oil prices caused by the US-Iran war in the Strait of Hormuz. Glen Peters, a scientist at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Norway and a co-author of the study, said: "It's downwards, which sounds good, but this is largely driven by the war in Iran, what's happened in the Strait of Hormuz." He added: "So in a way, a little bit of good news, but for the wrong reasons."
Oil emissions are projected to drop by 1.9% in 2026, while natural gas emissions are expected to fall by 0.3%. Coal emissions, however, continued to rise by around 0.6%.
The study found that renewable energy and electric vehicles are increasingly inhibiting emission growth, but their effect is being offset by growing energy demand, especially in emerging economies. The authors conclude that the projected decline is likely temporary rather than evidence of a persistent peak. "A drop in emissions in one year is not a peak unless it is driven by structural change," Peters cautioned.
The study warns that even though fossil fuel emissions dropped slightly, overall global carbon dioxide emissions still went up by about 1%, because of land use changes like deforestation and peat fires. The authors say clean technologies have offset most of the emission growth but are not sufficient to support a sustained decline, and that deployment needs to be accelerated.
Sources
This article was drafted with AI assistance and checked against the sources above. Company claims are reported as claims. Cover image is AI-generated.
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