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The nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted 11 House races and four governor's races toward Democrats ahead of the 2026 midterms. Ten of the House shifts occurred in states President Donald Trump won in 2024.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted 11 House races in favor of Democrats and four governor's races to the left ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. The changes reflect a continued erosion of Republican chances to hold the majority in Congress, despite recent campaign efforts by President Donald Trump.
Ten of the 11 House seats that shifted toward Democrats are located in states Trump won in 2024. The report moved Montana's 1st congressional district from "Lean Republican" to "Toss-Up." Trump won this district by nearly 12 points in the 2024 election, and he held a rally in Kalispell, within the district, just days before the rating change.
Five district races moved from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican." These include:
According to UA.News, citing The Hill, the districts of Republicans Brad Finstad in Minnesota, Mike Turner and Mike Carey in Ohio were among those shifted from "likely Republican" to "leans Republican." The open 21st District in New York and the 1st District in South Carolina received the same revision.
Additionally, three seats previously rated "Solid Republican" moved to "Likely Republican." These include the districts of Derek Schmidt in Kansas, Mike Flood in Nebraska, and Florida's open 16th District.
Among seats currently held by Democrats, Florida's 25th congressional district moved from "Toss-Up" to "Lean Democrat," and Ohio's 1st congressional district moved from "Lean Democrat" to "Likely Democrat."
The report also adjusted ratings for governor's races. The Alaska governor's race moved from "Toss-Up" to "Lean Republican," a shift that occurred the same day Trump campaigned in the state. Races in Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Vermont shifted from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican."
Cook Political Report House editor Erin Covey noted significant outside spending in key districts by House Majority PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund, and the MAGA Inc. super PACs. "Across the country, scores of districts that President Donald Trump won by 10 or more points are now firmly in play," Cook Political Report wrote in its analysis. Covey stated that the spending indicates both parties consider these races competitive. She also noted that Democrats hold competitive positions in districts that previously voted for Barack Obama but supported Trump in the 2024 presidential election.
These rating changes highlight the competitive nature of the 2026 midterm elections, particularly in districts that favored President Trump in 2024. The shifts suggest that despite Republican efforts to mobilize their base through rallies in states like Ohio, Montana, Nebraska, and Oklahoma, Democrats are gaining ground in traditionally conservative areas. The increased outside spending by both parties underscores the high stakes involved in these specific races.
Sources
This article was drafted with AI assistance and checked against the sources above. Company claims are reported as claims. Cover image is AI-generated.
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