AP-NORC poll: Voters seek change as Trump faces midterm headwinds

A new survey by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research indicates that a strong majority of voters believe President Donald Trump is falling short on domestic and foreign policy, creating significant challenges for the Republican Party in the upcoming midterm elections. The poll, conducted less than four weeks before Election Day, reveals that registered voters who identify as Democrats are more enthusiastic about casting a ballot than their Republican counterparts.

Voter Enthusiasm and Party Control

The data shows a distinct gap in motivation between the two major parties. About three-quarters of Democratic voters say voting in the November midterm elections is "extremely" important, compared with roughly 6 in 10 Republicans. Overall, about two-thirds of registered voters say it is "extremely" important to vote, while about 2 in 10 say it is "very" important.

Regarding control of Congress, about half of registered voters say they would prefer to see the Democratic Party control the House or the Senate. A smaller percentage, roughly 4 in 10, say they want the Republican Party to control each chamber, while 15% are undecided. Republicans have controlled Congress for the past two years.

Economic Concerns and Trump’s Approval

The economy and the cost of living are top priorities for voters across the political spectrum. About 8 in 10 voters overall say the economy or the cost of living is among their top issues, while about two-thirds cite healthcare and the war in Iran. Issues traditionally stronger for Trump, such as immigration or crime, are lower priorities for the general electorate.

President Trump’s approval ratings reflect this dissatisfaction. Only about one-third of registered voters have a "very" or "somewhat" favorable view of the president, and a similar share approve of his performance. Nearly two years into his second term, about 8 in 10 registered voters disapprove of how Trump is handling the cost of living, and about three-quarters disapprove of his performance on the economy.

Even within the Republican base, there are signs of strain. Only 44% of Republican voters approve of Trump’s performance on the cost of living, and 54% approve of his leadership on the economy. Furthermore, just 69% of Republican voters support Trump on foreign policy as the war in Iran enters its eighth month, despite earlier promises that it would last only four or five weeks.

Desire for Change

The poll highlights a broad desire for change in the country’s direction. About half of voters say they want "substantial change," and roughly 3 in 10 want "complete and total upheaval" in how the country is run. While Democrats and independents are more likely to want a full overhaul, 45% of Republican voters also want substantial change, and 13% want upheaval.

"I’m kind of tired of sending people there and nothing gets done," said Krista Kohles, a 70-year-old Republican from near Davey, Nebraska. "Nothing’s changing."

Independent Voters and Democratic Outlook

While Republicans face headwinds, enthusiasm for the Democratic Party is not overwhelming. About 4 in 10 voters have a "very" or "somewhat" favorable view of the Democrats, while about half view the party unfavorably. However, independent voters are much more likely to view the Republican Party negatively (about two-thirds) than the Democratic Party (about 4 in 10).

Michael Russo, a 51-year-old Texas voter not registered with either party, described the state of the country under Republican control as "a nightmare." He stated, "No, I want them in prison — several of them," when asked if he wanted Republicans to maintain control of Congress. However, he added, "I’m not confident they’re going to do anything if they get into power," referring to the Democrats.

Why it matters

The AP-NORC poll underscores the difficult political landscape facing Republicans as they defend their congressional majorities. With high disapproval ratings on the economy and the war in Iran, and lower voter enthusiasm compared to Democrats, the party faces significant hurdles. The findings suggest that economic dissatisfaction and foreign policy fatigue are driving a broad desire for change, potentially benefiting Democratic candidates in key races.

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Sources

• apnews.com: Voters want change as Trump struggles before midterms | AP News
• politico.com: ‘Ship has sailed’: New poll shows even an end to the war or lower gas prices may not save Republicans - POLITICO

This article was drafted with AI assistance and checked against the sources above. Company claims are reported as claims. Cover image is AI-generated.